东京电子：季报点评：反映客户需求变化，公司下调指引

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of JPY 31,880, slightly down from the previous target of JPY 32,000 [6][4]. Core Views - The company has adjusted its FY26 revenue and operating profit guidance downwards by 9.6% to JPY 2.35 trillion and by 21.6% to JPY 570 billion, respectively, primarily due to changes in customer capital expenditure plans [2][4]. - Despite the downward revision in revenue and profit forecasts, the company remains optimistic about the demand for AI-related chips and the potential positive impact of the Rubin series on global semiconductor equipment performance [2][4]. - The company expects the global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market size for CY2025 to increase from USD 110 billion to USD 115 billion, reflecting the impact of currency fluctuations and the anticipated growth in AI server module capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY26Q1, the company's revenue was JPY 549.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.1%, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 5.4% [1]. - Operating profit for the same period was JPY 144.6 billion, down 12.7% year-on-year and 21.3% quarter-on-quarter, also missing consensus expectations by 7% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was JPY 117.8 billion, a decline of 6.6% year-on-year and 17.6% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of consensus expectations by 11% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company has revised its FY26 revenue forecast down by 9.6% to JPY 2.35 trillion and operating profit down by 21.6% to JPY 570 billion, citing several factors including adjustments in capital expenditure by leading logic customers and reduced investments by emerging Chinese chip manufacturers [2][4]. - The report anticipates a continued strong demand for AI chips, particularly from companies like NVIDIA, which may drive performance in semiconductor equipment [2][4]. Capital Expenditure and R&D - The company maintains its capital expenditure guidance for FY26 at JPY 240 billion, significantly up from JPY 162.1 billion in FY25, with R&D expenses set at JPY 295 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in next-generation etching, deposition, and bonding equipment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the demand for advanced logic foundry services is expected to grow, particularly as TSMC continues to increase its capital expenditures while Intel and Samsung face challenges [2][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a decline in FY26/27/28 operating revenue by 11.7%/11.9%/12.0% and a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 17.1%/15.8%/16.1%, with diluted EPS expected to be JPY 1,073/1,208/1,342 [4][10]. - The company is valued at approximately 26.4 times FY27E PE, based on an average PE of 22.4 times for comparable companies [4][10].