生猪：月末缩量拉涨，关注持续性

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent active weight - reduction by groups, combined with the limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season, has led to a rapid decline in spot prices, indicating that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may result in more concentrated slaughter, causing the spot to remain weak. With strong macro - sentiment support for the far - end, the market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,640 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures Prices: The price of the LH2509 contract is 14,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,885 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2601 contract is 14,145 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 245 yuan/ton [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 29,045 lots, a decrease of 4,243 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 45,199 lots, a decrease of 7,850 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 17,372 lots, an increase of 4,950 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 50,621 lots, an increase of 625 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 16,801 lots, an increase of 2,798 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,215 lots, a decrease of 1,637 lots from the previous day [2]. - Spreads: The basis of the LH2509 contract is 255 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 620 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2601 contract is 185 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 645 yuan/ton. The spread between LH2509 and LH2511 is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 220 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2511 and LH2601 is - 260 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The market is currently in a situation where groups are actively reducing weights, consumption is in the off - season, and downstream digestion is limited, leading to a weak spot market. The strong macro - sentiment supports the far - end, resulting in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit for the short - term LH2509 contract, with a support level of 13,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 15,000 yuan/ton [4].