碳酸锂：上市以来行情回顾

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report reviews the six unilateral market trends of lithium carbonate futures contracts since their listing on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in July 2023, and summarizes the driving factors and main industrial contradictions at each time point. As of July 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate contract index has declined by 71.3% since listing, with a maximum decline of about 76%, and experienced four significant rebounds, three of which were around 30% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Excess Expectation Dominance & Oversold Rebound - After the withdrawal of the new - energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy at the end of 2022, the downstream of the lithium - battery industry chain actively destocked from January to April 2023, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 170,000 yuan/ton. It rebounded in late April due to downstream restocking, then fell again from early July [4]. - From July to December 2023, the market was dominated by the expectation of oversupply of lithium resources. Global sample mines increased production by about 1.02 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023, a 32% increase from 2022. Although global lithium - battery shipments maintained a 27% growth, supply increased more rapidly. The lithium price declined smoothly, with limited supply disturbances and rebound heights [4]. - In mid - November 2023, the lithium carbonate contract accelerated its decline. In early December, it reached the expected cost - support range of 80,000 - 100,000 yuan, then the main contract LC2401 rebounded from around 85,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan and fluctuated in the range for three months [5]. 3.2 Phased Supply - Demand Mismatch - Around the Spring Festival in 2024, low lithium prices reduced the salt factory's production enthusiasm. The domestic lithium carbonate enterprise's February开工率 was about 35%, a significant drop from 43% in January. However, lithium - battery material enterprises were approaching the production peak season, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. After the Spring Festival, lithium - battery enterprises rushed to buy lithium carbonate, and on February 21, news of environmental disturbances in Jiangxi mines boosted the price. The lithium carbonate index rebounded by about 28.4% in 10 days until March 1 [6]. 3.3 Continuous Inventory Accumulation Suppresses Price - After the rebound in 2024, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated between 110,000 - 120,000 yuan per ton from March to April. Lithium salt factories' production enthusiasm increased due to improved profits. From March, domestic lithium carbonate production increased continuously, with monthly环比增速 of 31.8%, 23.6%, and 18.2% from March to May. After the May Day holiday, downstream demand entered the off - season, and inventory reached a new high on May 9. The lithium carbonate contract entered a new decline cycle, with an index decline of about 36% from May 10 to September 6, 2024 [8][10]. 3.4 Exceeding Demand Expectation & Early Stockpiling - From October 22 to November 13, 2024, the lithium carbonate index rose about 20%. The extension of the lithium - battery material production peak season and early stockpiling by downstream enterprises were the main drivers. The new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly in September and October 2024, and lithium - battery enterprises may have rushed to export products to avoid potential US tariffs. As of November 7, 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory had decreased by nearly 22,000 tons from the August peak. Some downstream enterprises stockpiled in advance, and some lithium resource enterprises lowered their production and sales targets, boosting market sentiment [13][14]. 3.5 Cost Collapse & Commodity Pessimism Resonance - From March to June 2025, the pressure on lithium salt processing profits was transmitted to the mining end, and the price of lithium concentrate dropped nearly 30% in three months. The prices of lithium ore and lithium salt declined spirally, and cost support failed. Macroeconomic expectations weakened, and the demand for lithium carbonate was affected by Trump's tariff policy, the end of the "Green New Deal," and domestic policy adjustments. From March 20 to June 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate index declined by about 21.6% [18]. 3.6 Sentiment Boost for Oversold Varieties - The lithium carbonate index rebounded on June 23, 2025, with a range increase of 34.5% until July 25, approaching the annual high. The supply - demand relationship did not reverse significantly, but the commodity market had strong repair expectations, and long - position funds dominated the market. Some commodities started to rebound in June, and events in the mining end, such as lithium mica nuclear storage in Jiangxi and mine shutdowns, boosted sentiment. The lithium carbonate contract index rose about 24% from July 14 to July 25, then declined due to increased market risk [19].