中辉能化观点-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the products in the report are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, propylene. Crude oil is recommended to hold short positions, and asphalt is rated as "Bearish" [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities, indicating that many are facing supply - demand imbalances or macro - economic pressures, leading to a generally bearish outlook. For example, geopolitical risks in the oil market are releasing, and OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices. New capacity in some chemical products is expected to increase supply, while demand is seasonally weak [1][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Commodity Categories Crude Oil - Core View: Hold short positions [1]. - Logic: Geopolitical risks have been released, and oil prices have fallen. Although there are short - term geopolitical and macro - economic positives, from a supply - demand perspective, OPEC+ production increases are gradually releasing pressure, and the peak season is in the second half, with the oil price center still having room to decline. The US 5 - month crude oil production increased, and commercial and strategic oil reserves also changed [6][7]. - Strategy: For the 10 - contract, short positions can be established, and call options can be bought to protect the position. If short positions are already held, it is recommended to continue holding. Pay attention to the range of 520 - 530 yuan for SC [8]. LPG - Core View: Cautiously bearish [1]. - Logic: Cost - end oil prices are oscillating, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The LPG's own fundamentals are okay, but the cost end is the main drag. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased. Inventory has changed, with port inventory increasing and refinery inventory decreasing [11]. - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the range of 3950 - 4050 yuan for PG [12]. L (Polyethylene) - Core View: Cautiously bearish [1]. - Logic: Most devices have recently restarted, increasing supply pressure. The basis and monthly spreads are at low levels compared to the same period. Social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks, and the fundamentals are weak. There are plans to put new capacity into production in August [18]. - Strategy: Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time, and short positions can be established on the far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 yuan for L [18]. PP (Polypropylene) - Core View: Cautiously bearish [1]. - Logic: Market sentiment has cooled. Although there are high - level maintenance in the short - term, the production capacity pressure in the third quarter is high. New capacity is planned to be released in August, and domestic demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak downstream restocking power. Inventory has started to accumulate, and high production restricts the rebound space [25]. - Strategy: Short positions can be established on the far - month contracts or a 9 - 1 monthly positive spread can be established. Pay attention to the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan for PP [25]. PVC - Core View: Cautiously bearish [1]. - Logic: The market has returned to weak fundamentals, and the futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. New devices have reached full - load production, and there are few maintenance plans in August. It is the off - season for both domestic and foreign demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 6 weeks, with the supply - demand pattern expected to continue to accumulate inventory in August [31]. - Strategy: Short positions can be established on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 5000 - 5120 yuan for V [31]. PX - Core View: Cautiously bearish [1]. - Logic: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventory is declining but still relatively high. PXN is not low, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise at the end of July. The probability of a September interest rate cut has decreased, and overnight crude oil has weakened [1]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pull - backs, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of 6800 - 6920 yuan for PX [37]. PTA - Core View: Cautiously bearish [1]. - Logic: Recent device changes are relatively small, but new PTA devices are expected to be put into production, increasing supply - side pressure. Demand is seasonally weak, and the fundamentals are expected to shift from a tight balance to a looser state. The cost support has weakened [40]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions; pay attention to the possibility of expanding the PTA processing fee; sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4720 - 4800 yuan for TA [41]. Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Cautiously bearish [1]. - Logic: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads. The arrival and import volumes are low compared to the same period, but the inflection point is approaching. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are continuously declining. Although the supply - demand was in a tight balance in July, low inventory supports the price, but the macro - economic situation is not favorable [44]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4360 - 4430 yuan for EG [45]. Glass - Core View: Cautiously bearish [2]. - Logic: Politburo meeting policies did not exceed expectations, and the manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, suppressing the commodity market sentiment. Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory has decreased for 6 weeks, mainly due to inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus shifts from expectations to fundamentals [49]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of 1090 - 1150 yuan for FG [50]. Soda Ash - Core View: Cautiously bearish [2]. - Logic: The hype of macro - policies has cooled, and short - selling funds have increased. The overall production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the inventory of soda ash plants has decreased for the third week but is still at a historical high. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not significantly improved, and the fundamentals are bearish under the background of high supply and high inventory. The market logic has shifted from macro - policy expectations to the industrial fundamentals [54]. - Strategy: Wait patiently for the price to pull back [54]. Caustic Soda - Core View: Cautiously bearish [2]. - Logic: Due to summer device maintenance, industry start - up has declined. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and alumina production and capacity utilization have increased. Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, but inventory is high compared to the same period, and there is no obvious fundamental driver for the futures price. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and the downstream alumina futures price has pulled back [59]. - Strategy: Adjust the operation cycle to be shorter [59]. Methanol - Core View: Cautiously bearish [2]. - Logic: Domestic and foreign methanol devices have increased their loads, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. In August, port methanol is expected to start the inventory accumulation cycle. Demand is relatively good, but traditional demand has declined. Social inventory is low overall, but the trend is to accumulate. The cost support is stable [62]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 2370 - 2420 yuan for MA [63]. Urea - Core View: Cautiously bearish [2]. - Logic: Urea device start - up remains high, and production pressure is not reduced. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and factory inventory has increased, but exports are relatively good, and port inventory has decreased. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise [2]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions in batches, short positions can be established on rallies. Urea has a wide - range oscillation, and double - selling options can be used. Pay attention to the range of 1705 - 1735 yuan for UR [2]. Asphalt - Core View: Bearish [2]. - Logic: The cost - end oil price has room to compress, and raw material supply is sufficient. Supply has increased while demand has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with over - valuation [2]. - Strategy: Try short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan for BU [2]. Propylene - Core View: Cautiously bearish [2]. - Logic: The August propane CP quotation has decreased, weakening cost support. The spot decline has slowed down, and the futures price is closing the basis. PDH start - up has continued to rise, and factory inventory is at a high level and accumulating. PP powder start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, and demand support is insufficient [2]. - Strategy: Short positions can be established on rebounds, hold the 1 - 2 monthly reverse spread, and go long on the PP futures processing fee. Pay attention to the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan for PL [2].