生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250801

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Section Summaries Market Dynamics - On July 31, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 7,850 lots today, with a position of approximately 45,200 lots. The highest price was 14,180 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,065 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be in a state of volatile adjustment. - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price [4]. Market Overview - On July 31, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15% from the previous day. The average price in Henan was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg or 1.65%. - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts decreased, except for the 09 contract which remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan increased by 230 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 242.11% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report provides historical data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip pork average prices, corn purchase prices, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as data on the basis of the main pig futures contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts [6][14].