宝城期货资讯早班车-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends with some indicators stabilizing and others facing challenges. The manufacturing PMI has declined, while the "Three New" economy has shown growth. The government is promoting policies to boost investment, consumption, and the application of AI. In the global market, there are uncertainties in oil prices, and the US is involved in tariff - related issues [1][2][15] - The bond market has been affected by various factors, with yields showing different trends. Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond market, and there are opportunities and risks in the investment environment [19][25] - The stock market in China and Hong Kong has experienced fluctuations, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both falling on a certain day, but there were also positive monthly performances in July [30] Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4%. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points. Other indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and CPI showed different trends [1] Commodity Investment - The overall domestic futures market has cooled, with some varieties hitting跌停. The "Three New" economy in 2024 had a value - added of 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7% and accounting for 18.01% of GDP [2] - Platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have specific trading rules. The US may resume "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st, and there are ongoing negotiations [3][4] Main Commodity Highlights Metals - In Q2 2025, the global gold demand reached 1249 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase, driven by investment demand. Central bank gold purchases continued but at a slower pace. Zinc, copper, nickel, and other metal inventories showed different trends [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The coking industry plans to raise coke prices. The reform of industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals is necessary, and three major steel enterprises are taking action against speculation in the molybdenum market. Mexico may impose tariffs on certain products [7][8] Energy and Chemicals - Sinopec's net profit in H1 2025 is expected to decline. China's renewable energy generation has increased, and the government is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities. International oil prices have fallen due to increased US crude inventories, and India is considering alternative oil sources [9][10][11] Agricultural Products - The price of cotton has risen, while the price of live pigs has fallen. The US has imposed tariffs on Brazil, affecting the agricultural product futures market. US corn has been sold to different destinations [13] Financial News Open Market - On July 31st, the central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan [14] Key News - The State Council has promoted AI applications and consumer and business loan subsidy policies. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes stabilizing the economy. China and the US will extend the suspension of certain tariffs [15] Bond Market Review - The bond market has been strong, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally falling. The central bank's net withdrawal has little impact on the inter - bank capital. Exchange - traded bonds and convertible bonds have different performance [19][20] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar has depreciated, and the US dollar index has slightly declined. Non - US currencies have mostly risen [24] Research Report Highlights - Different institutions have views on the financial market, including the role of the financial cycle in the cyclical industry, the impact of tariffs on the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the development potential of the Southbound Connect [25] Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have fallen on a certain day, but there were positive monthly performances in July. Southbound funds have made large net purchases in the Hong Kong market [30]