山金期货黑色板块日报-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - Policy might correct the over - interpretation of anti - involution previously. During the summer heat, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise. The market focus will shift to the peak - season consumption in August - September. For steel products, short - term short positions can be held, and those not yet in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds. For iron ore, short - term short selling on price rebounds is recommended, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Policy and Market News: Politburo meeting removed "low - price" from "low - price disorderly competition", changed "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promote the governance of key industry production capacity", and emphasized optimizing market competition order. The July manufacturing PMI data in China was below expectations, and rapid price increases pressured terminal demand [3]. - Supply and Demand: This week, ribbed bar production and apparent demand decreased from an increasing trend, factory inventory decreased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory increased for the third consecutive week. The total inventory of five major steel products rose, and apparent demand declined. Seasonally, demand will weaken in summer heat, and inventory is expected to rise [3]. - Technical Analysis: Futures prices decreased with reduced positions, and long - position liquidation drove price drops [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short - term short positions. Those not in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds [3]. - Data: - Prices: Ribbed bar futures and spot prices, hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all decreased. For example, the ribbed bar futures price decreased by 3.32% compared to the previous day and 2.70% compared to last week [3]. - Production: Ribbed bar production was 211.06 million tons, a 0.42% decrease from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 322.79 million tons, a 1.67% increase from last week [3]. - Inventory: Five - major - product social inventory increased by 1.65%, ribbed bar social inventory increased by 2.99%, and ribbed bar factory inventory decreased by 2.12% [3]. 2. Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but iron - water production has large downward pressure in the off - season. Even in the peak season, the room for growth is limited. Global iron - ore shipments are high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, but trade - mine inventory is high [6]. - Market News: After the Sino - US trade talks and Politburo meeting, positive factors were exhausted, and prices face large correction pressure [6]. - Technical Analysis: Futures prices stabilized in the short term, the oscillation range narrowed, and prices are expected to follow the trend of ribbed bars [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term short selling on price rebounds, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [6]. - Data: - Prices: Iron - ore spot and futures prices decreased. For example, the DCE iron - ore futures price decreased by 1.27% compared to the previous day and 3.95% compared to last week [7]. - Supply: Australian iron - ore shipments increased by 16.64% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 12.19% [7]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased by 0.04%, and trade - mine inventory decreased by 0.11% [7]. 3. Industry Information - Steel Industry PMI: In July 2025, the steel industry PMI was 50.5%, up 4.6 percentage points month - on - month, ending two consecutive months of decline and returning to the expansion range. In August, steel demand may continue a weak recovery, steel - mill production may rise slightly, and raw material and steel prices will oscillate [10]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking - coal long - term agreement price increased in July. Some coking - coal mines' production is restricted, and coking - plant profitability varies by region. The average national ton - coke profit is - 45 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Other Products: National float - glass inventory decreased for six consecutive weeks, and soda - ash factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high historical level [12].