硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，偏弱震荡，锰硅，宏观情绪扰动，偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "weak and volatile" rating for both the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets are affected by macro - sentiment and are in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For silicon ferroalloy, the closing price of SiFe2509 is 5696, down 312 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 487,970 and an open interest of 169,660; SiFe2510's closing price is 5684, down 306, with a trading volume of 41,866 and an open interest of 43,123. For manganese ferroalloy, MnSi2509's closing price is 5946, down 170, with a trading volume of 536,181 and an open interest of 299,149; MnSi2510's closing price is 5956, down 166, with a trading volume of 27,806 and an open interest of 25,424 [1] - Spot Data: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, down 50; the price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1] - Price Difference Data: The spot - futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 96 yuan/ton, up 262; that of manganese ferroalloy is - 196 yuan/ton, up 120. The near - far month price difference of silicon ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 is - 146 yuan/ton, down 14; that of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 is - 82 yuan/ton, up 10. The cross - variety price difference of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 is 250 yuan/ton, up 142 [1] Macro and Industry News - Product Price News: On July 31, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5500 - 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5750, in Qinghai 5550 - 5650 (+50), in Gansu 5600 - 5700 (+100), and in Inner Mongolia 5700 - 5800 (+50); the price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950, in Ningxia 5850 - 5900, in Qinghai 5850 - 5900, in Gansu 5850 - 5900, and in Inner Mongolia 5900 - 5950 (+50). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 6000 - 6100 (-50) yuan/ton [2] - Production News: In July, the production of silicon - manganese in traditional southern production areas showed obvious differentiation. The production in Guizhou and Guangxi with no electricity price advantage continued to decline. Although there were individual factory resumptions in Guangxi and Guizhou at the end of July, the production recovery was slow. Yunnan entered the wet season with good production. The silicon - manganese production in Guangxi was about 2.69 million tons, in Guizhou about 2.73 million tons, and in Yunnan about 5.75 million tons. In July, the overall production of silicon - manganese in the northern region increased, with factories in Shandong, Shanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Henan resuming production or increasing production. The silicon - manganese production in Ningxia was about 19.55 million tons, in Inner Mongolia about 43.75 million tons, and in other northern regions about 8.66 million tons. The total production of all grades of silicon - manganese in July was about 89.27 million tons, an increase of nearly 6 million tons compared with June. The total production from January to July was about 602.29 million tons (compared with 607.67 million tons in the same period in 2024) [2][4] - Manganese Ore News: According to the Q2 2025 report of Comilog, the production of manganese ore and sintered ore in Q2 2025 was 1.764 million tons, a 1.18% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 10.6% increase year - on - year; the transportation volume was 1.659 million tons, a 19.7% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.41% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the alleviation of logistics challenges at Owendo Port, with the transportation volume reaching 600,000 tons in June, while railway transportation remained the main pressure point in the logistics chain. In the first half of 2025, the mine production was 3.5 million tons (+1%), and the transportation volume decreased to 3 million tons (-5%). The FOB cash cost of manganese ore business activities in the first half of the year was 2.3 dollars/ton - degree. Considering the logistics challenges in the first half of the year, the manganese ore transportation volume target for 2025 was adjusted to 6.5 - 7 million metric tons [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is - 1, and that of manganese ferroalloy is - 1, indicating a weak outlook for both [4]