光大期货能化商品日报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - Polyester: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - Rubber: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - Methanol: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - Polyolefin: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]