光大期货金融期货日报-20250801

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For stock index futures, the A - share market oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with the Wind All - A down 1.36% and a trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rise is due to long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution and infrastructure demand, and short - term capital inflows. The market is currently divided, and investors should wait for clearer policies and trends before adjusting positions [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.57%, 0.17%, 0.08%, and 0.01% respectively. After the anti - involution policy expectations, the bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short - term treasury bonds may stop falling and stabilize [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index Futures: Yesterday, the A - share market declined, with the CSI 1000 down 0.85%, CSI 500 down 1.4%, SSE 50 down 1.54%, and SSE 300 down 1.82%. The parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The long - term logic is the shift of fiscal policy and inflation recovery; the mid - term is anti - involution and infrastructure; the short - term is capital inflows. The market is divided, and position adjustment should wait for clarity [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose. The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. After the anti - involution policy expectations, the bond market may have a repair market [3]. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH decreased by 1.52%, IF by 1.92%, IC by 1.47%, and IM by 1.00%. The corresponding stock indexes also declined, with the SSE 50 down 1.54%, SSE 300 down 1.82%, CSI 500 down 1.40%, and CSI 1000 down 0.85% [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS rose by 0.02%, TF by 0.09%, T by 0.17%, and TL by 0.64% [4]. Market News - In July, affected by the traditional production off - season and natural disasters, the PMI dropped to 49.3%. The production index remained in expansion, but market demand slowed down [5]. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: Charts show the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts and related stock indexes [7][9][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Charts display the trends, basis, spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [14][17][19]. - Exchange Rates: Charts present the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB, including spot and forward rates [22][23][26]. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master in economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures research [29].