Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 1, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to experience low - level fluctuations; stainless steel's real - world fundamentals are being verified, and the macro - sentiment is waning [2]. Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots [5]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park, and potential fines may be imposed. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has approved a higher nickel production target for 2025. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [5][6][7]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Core View - The C - structure of lithium carbonate has declined, and attention should be paid to the August delivery situation [2]. Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 68,280 yuan, down 2,320 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 521,849 lots, a decrease of 271,060 lots [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Mt Marion's lithium concentrate production and shipments decreased in Q2 2025, while Wodgina's production and shipments increased [12][13]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress; for polysilicon, the short - term sentiment has cooled, and the market should be treated as a callback [2]. Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2509 contract for industrial silicon was 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract for polysilicon was 49,130 yuan/ton, down 5,575 yuan [15]. Macro and Industry News - A notice was issued to regulate the use of cultivated land in photovoltaic projects [16]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [17].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20250801
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-01 03:19