国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC released hawkish expectations [2][4]. - Silver: Prices retreated from high levels [2][4]. - Copper: Rising spot premiums limited price declines [2][10]. - Zinc: Inventories continued to accumulate [2][13]. - Lead: Increasing inventories pressured prices [2][16]. - Tin: Prices oscillated within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum: Prices trended downward with fluctuations [2][24]. - Alumina: Prices reverted to fundamentals [2][24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Prices followed those of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Prices oscillated at low levels [2][27]. - Stainless Steel: The actual fundamentals were verified, and macro - sentiment faded [2][28]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Fundamentals: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2510 was 770.28 with a daily decline of 0.45%, and the night - session closing price was 770.92 with a 0.12% increase. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2510 was 9008 with a 2.00% decline, and the night - session closing price was 8935.00 with a 1.37% decline. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 88 [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, with the US core PCE price index in June rising 2.8% year - on - year, hitting a four - month high. The world gold council reported that central banks' gold purchases in Q2 reached a three - year low, and ETFs took over to support gold demand [9]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the SHFE Copper main contract was 78,040 with a 1.13% decline, and the night - session closing price was 78010 with a 0.04% decline. The spot premium over the near - month futures contract increased by 55 to 165 [10]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump increased the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35%, and the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Trump also imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting August 1 [12]. - Trend Intensity: Copper had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the SHFE Zinc main contract was 22345 with a 1.43% decline. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2795.5 with a 0.68% decline. LME Zinc inventories decreased by 4250 tons [13]. - News: The US was pressuring multiple countries on tariffs, and Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and planned to negotiate with India [14]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the SHFE Lead main contract was 16735 with a 0.92% decline. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1992 with a 1.39% decline. SHFE Lead inventories increased by 426 tons [16]. - News: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, and the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days [17]. - Trend Intensity: Lead had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the SHFE Tin main contract was 265,290 with a 0.96% decline, and the night - session closing price was 264,200 with a 0.74% decline. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 2,600 to 265,500 [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other metals, including tariff news and inflation data [21]. - Trend Intensity: Tin had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [23]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The closing price of the SHFE Aluminum main contract was 20510, down 115. The closing price of the SHFE Alumina main contract was 3222, down 104. The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract was 19950, down 120 [24]. - Comprehensive News: The US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days, and Mexico would continue to pay certain tariffs during this period [26]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), Alumina had a trend intensity of - 1 (bearish), and Aluminum Alloy had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral) [26]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the SHFE Nickel main contract was 121,720, down 80. The closing price of the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,920, unchanged. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 912, up 1 [28]. - Macro and Industry News: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production phase, and environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [28][29]. - Trend Intensity: Both Nickel and Stainless Steel had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral) [32].