国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to show a relatively strong oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience a weakening oscillatory trend as market sentiment cools [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are subject to weakening oscillatory trends due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations as market sentiment is realized [2][17][18]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][26]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the I2509 futures contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton (-1.27%). The open - position decreased by 32,551 lots. Spot prices of various iron ores remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed some changes, with the basis of I2509 against Super Special increasing by 10.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the RB2510 rebar futures contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (-4.19%), and the HC2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (-3.56%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the weekly data on July 31 [9][10]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 31, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. The Politburo meeting proposed to manage enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity governance in key industries [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [9][11]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Various price spreads showed different changes [13]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price and production data for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions in July. The production and transportation data of manganese ore from Comilog in the second quarter of 2025 were released [14][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [16]. 3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions changed. There were also changes in basis and spreads. The open - position of some contracts decreased [18]. - Price and Open - Position Situation: There were coking coal quotes at northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on July 31. The open - position changes of some contracts among the top 20 members of the DCE were provided [18][19][20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. 3.5 Steam Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: The ZC2508 steam coal contract had no trading the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [23]. - Fundamentals: There were quotes for imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas. The open - position of the ZC2508 contract among the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change on July 31 [24]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.6 Logs - Fundamental Data: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [27]. - Macro and Industry News: The Politburo decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work [29]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [29].