农产品日报（2025年8月1日）-20250801

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: This week, the main corn contract reduced positions and adjusted. The funds of the September contract shifted to the January contract. The bearish factor of good weather during the growth period influenced market sentiment, and the corn futures price showed a weak performance. Northeast corn prices remained stable, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market was relatively limited. In the Northeast production area, there was a small amount of supply, and the downstream trading activity was poor. In North China, corn prices generally showed a stable - to - strong trend. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton this week, but was suppressed by the technical resistance level and then declined again. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 2300 yuan/ton support for the September contract, and a medium - term downward trend is expected [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed at the lowest level since April due to favorable crop weather in the US for a bumper harvest and sufficient global supply. Domestic protein meal prices declined as domestic commodities generally fell and funds withdrew from the market. The Sino - US negotiation maintained the suspension of the 24% tariff, but did not mention soybean purchases, which led to concerns about the long - term supply of soybean meal. Strategically, soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly, and investors can participate in the 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil prices fell, ending a two - day upward trend. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.7% - 9.6% month - on - month. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, leading to an increase in export tariffs. Domestically, the market sentiment was weak, and the futures prices of oils declined. The decline in the outer market led to a decrease in import costs, which also pressured the prices. The inventory of palm oil was limited, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased. The oils market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, which was conducive to restoring import profits. Strategically, short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, influenced by surrounding commodities, the egg futures price oscillated and closed down. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The short - term fundamental situation was still bearish, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. In the future, as the egg market enters the peak season, demand will have a positive impact on egg prices. However, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than that of last year [2][3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main pig contract 2509 oscillated during the session and finally closed flat. The spot price of pigs increased slightly. As pig prices continued to adjust, the mentality of farmers to support prices became stronger, and the slaughter volume decreased. The policy provided support for pig prices, so a short - term oscillating trend is expected. Attention should be paid to whether the short - term rebound in spot prices can continue and the impact of market sentiment changes on the futures market after the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Market Information - Argentina reduced the export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [4]. - As of July 23, the national average ex - factory price of pigs was 14.78 yuan/kg, a 1.20% decrease from July 16, and the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, a 1.12% decrease from July 16 [4]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that Indian vegetable oil importers were increasing palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season as global prices declined [4]. - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 was 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to suspend the designated rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of Sichuan Grain and Oil Wholesale Center Direct - affiliated Reserve Depot Co., Ltd. and Central Reserve Grain Sichuan Xinjin Direct - affiliated Depot Co., Ltd., and resume the rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of China Grain Reserves (Hefei) Reserve Co., Ltd. It also added Chengdu Grain Group Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery warehouse and COFCO Oils (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery factory warehouse [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][9][10][13]. - Contract Basis: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][15][19][25][27]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times Best Futures Analyst Awards for many years [29]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant awards for many years [29]. - Kong Hailan, a master of economics, is currently a researcher of the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29].