美联储7月议息会议点评：何时降息的分歧扩大

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations[4] - There was a notable division regarding future rate cuts, with 2 dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point cut[8] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have become more uncertain, with the probability of 2 or more cuts dropping from 67% to 50%[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed resilience, with a robust job market and moderate inflation pressures, allowing the Fed to remain cautious[11] - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2025 averaged 1.3%, slightly above the Fed's median forecast of 1.4%[21] - Inflation data for June indicated a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.9%[42] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 8 basis points and the 10-year yield by 4 basis points[31] - Most sectors in the S&P 500 declined, particularly materials, real estate, and energy, while utilities and information technology saw slight gains[35]