Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The decline in rebar prices, combined with weak demand during the off - season and low supply, along with uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition policies, contribute to this outlook [1]. - Iron ore prices are predicted to show oscillatory consolidation. Fluctuations in supply and demand, along with uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and potential parade - related production restrictions, influence this forecast [1]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to experience wide - range oscillations. Factors such as changes in supply and demand, cost fluctuations, and market participant sentiment contribute to this prediction [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to mainly show wide - range oscillations. Market sentiment fluctuations, along with limited impacts on supply and demand from anti - cut - throat competition policies, are the main drivers [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Steel (Rebar): The rebar futures price decreased significantly. The 2510 contract closed at 3205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (3.32%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 146,000 lots in positions. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume declined. Production slightly decreased, inventory increased marginally, and apparent demand fell. With weak off - season demand and low supply, and uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition policies, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 decreased to 779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 33,000 lots in positions. Global iron ore shipments increased slightly. Iron production decreased, and port inventory decreased while steel mill inventory increased. Due to uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and potential parade - related production restrictions, the short - term iron ore price is expected to show oscillatory consolidation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price dropped. The 2509 contract closed at 1045.5 yuan/ton, down 71.5 yuan/ton (6.4%), with a reduction of 23,096 lots in positions. The spot price in Lvliang increased, while the Mongolian coal market was weak. With upstream inventory at a reasonable level, production resuming, and changes in market sentiment due to cost increases and regulatory measures, the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price decreased. The 2509 contract closed at 1601 yuan/ton, down 75.5 yuan/ton (4.5%), with a reduction of 653 lots in positions. The spot price at Rizhao Port declined. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises are still in a loss - making state. With weakening steel demand and inventory accumulation, the short - term coke futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5946 yuan/ton, down 4.44% from the previous day, with a reduction of 35,030 lots in positions. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Market sentiment fluctuations and the lack of significant impacts on supply and demand from anti - cut - throat competition policies, along with increased production willingness and strong cost support, suggest that the short - term market will mainly show wide - range oscillations [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5696 yuan/ton, down 6.62% from the previous day, with a reduction of 27,248 lots in positions. Spot prices in some regions decreased. With the cooling of anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, limited impacts on supply and demand, and increased production and inventory, the short - term market is expected to mainly show wide - range oscillations [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: The report provides the latest contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) and basis data for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - Profit and Spread: Information on profits (such as rebar's on - screen profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) is presented, along with their changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][12][14][15]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts display the historical basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts present the historical inter - period contract spreads (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][34][35][38]. - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts show the historical inter - commodity contract spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) of various commodities [40][42][44]. - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts display the historical on - screen profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract [45][46][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, professional qualifications, and relevant honors [52][53].
黑色商品日报（2025年8月1日）-20250801
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-01 03:23