有色商品日报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 1.26% to $9,607/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss state, but the loss margin narrowed. Core inflation indicators rebounded, intensifying the divergence within the Fed on further interest rate cuts. Trump extended the US - Mexico tariff for 90 days, and China - US negotiations were still ongoing. LME, Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption remained weak. Considering the recent macro - factors and inventory accumulation, copper prices are currently considered weak [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina rebounded, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The export of bauxite from Guinea began to decline during the rainy season, and the domestic short - term ore reserves were relatively sufficient with obvious cost support. The supply is expected to increase after the return of Shunda's mining rights. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand margin shifted, leading to smooth inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots. The supply of scrap aluminum is expected to be tight in the short term, making it more resistant to price drops compared to electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.89% to $14,950/ton, and SHFE nickel fell to 120,000 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The price of domestic nickel ore decreased slightly, the transaction price of nickel iron moved up, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight LME copper dropped 1.26% to $9,607/ton, SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The US June PCE price index and core PCE were higher than expected, intensifying Fed's divergence on rate cuts. LME and Comex inventories increased, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak. Macro - factors and inventory accumulation made copper prices weak [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina price rebounded, aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Guinea's bauxite export declined, domestic ore reserves were sufficient with cost support. Supply is expected to increase. Electrolytic aluminum supply - demand shifted, leading to inventory accumulation. Scrap aluminum supply is expected to be tight [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel dropped 0.89% to $14,950/ton, SHFE nickel fell. LME inventory increased, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore price decreased slightly, nickel iron price moved up, battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased. Short - term prices were affected by sentiment and showed volatility [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory in different regions changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, COMEX inventory increased, and social inventory increased [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in different regions decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [5]. - Zinc: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. - Tin: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][10]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - continuous contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [15][17][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [28][30][32]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel [34][36][38]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [41][43][45]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - Team Introduction: The report introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [47][48][49].