海通证券晨报-20250801

Core Insights - The aviation industry showed a significant reduction in losses in Q2 2025, with domestic supply maintaining low growth and demand recovering steadily [5][31][32] - The REIT sector experienced a market correction, influenced by a shift in investor risk appetite and macroeconomic asset rotation, with fundamental pricing power being less impactful [3][4] Aviation Industry Summary - Q2 2025 saw the introduction of 107 new aircraft, with a net increase of only 52, leading to an estimated ASK growth of 6.7% year-on-year [31] - Domestic demand remained stable, with a 3.9% increase in passenger flow and a 4% decrease in domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices [31][32] - The industry achieved a record high passenger load factor, increasing by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 expected to show a significant reduction in losses for major airlines [31][32] - The summer travel season faced unexpected weakness in business travel demand, while leisure travel remained strong, indicating a potential recovery in business travel in the future [32][33] REIT Sector Summary - The REIT sector's performance in Q2 2025 continued to align with expected trends, although the overall market experienced a downturn following the release of quarterly reports [3][4] - The differentiation among REIT sectors was less pronounced in Q2 compared to Q1, with stable sectors like affordable housing and municipal projects leading the decline [3] - The current REIT market correction coincides with a shift in investor risk preferences, with the fundamental performance of underlying assets having a diminished impact on pricing [3][4] Industry Trends and Recommendations - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a long-term recovery in demand, with a recommendation to adopt a contrarian investment approach in the sector [33] - The REIT market is anticipated to remain influenced by its debt-like characteristics, with a focus on macroeconomic asset rotation and the impact of new policies on investor sentiment [4]