西部证券晨会纪要-20250801

Macro Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by adverse weather conditions [6][8] - Manufacturing prices have begun to stabilize and rise due to ongoing capacity governance policies [8] - There is a need to further expand domestic demand, particularly in investment [8] Political Meeting Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized improving policy quality and effectiveness for the second half of the year [10][11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of consumer demand and stabilizing livelihoods, suggesting a focus on demand-side policies [13] - Policies to combat "involution" and promote collaboration between government and enterprises were also discussed [12] Fixed Income Insights - The July PMI data indicates a supply-demand decline, with the price index continuing to rise [16][18] - The manufacturing PMI remains below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months, reflecting weak seasonal performance [17] - The bond market is expected to enter a narrow fluctuation phase, with limited incremental policies [20] Computer Industry Insights - The AI application continues to progress, with significant growth in overseas tech giants driven by AI [22][25] - Domestic AI applications are expected to see increased monetization as models improve [25] - Key investment targets include companies like Kingdee International and Yonyou Network in the domestic AI application space [25] Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - Guobang Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 3.026 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 4.63% increase [31] - The animal health segment saw a significant revenue increase of 53.5%, driven by strong sales of core products [32] - The company is expanding into new areas such as plant protection and health products, indicating a long-term growth strategy [32] Market Strategy Insights - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, AI hardware, and military-related themes for investment opportunities [36] - The macro policy environment is expected to support long-term investments in specialized and innovative enterprises [36] - Investors are advised to look for structural opportunities in growth-oriented companies with core technological advantages [36]