聚酯产业风险管理日报：“反内卷”逻辑告一段落，估值逐步回归基本面-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is strongly running under supply-side disturbances. Although demand shows no improvement, frequent supply-side accidents have strengthened the near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory, it remains easy to rise and hard to fall. Before the macro narrative is realized, it is expected to stay strong in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range is predicted to be 4200 - 4700, with a current volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile of 1.4% over 3 years [1] - PX price range is predicted to be 6500 - 7400, with a current volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7% over 3 years [1] - PTA price range is predicted to be 4400 - 5300, with a current volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6% over 3 years [1] - Bottle chip price range is predicted to be 5800 - 6500, with a current volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% over 3 years [1] Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, for long spot exposure, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 5 - 15 [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options (EG2509P4300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops, with a 75% hedging ratio in the entry range of 15 - 30 [1] Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Due to typhoons and other weather conditions, a large number of arrivals have been delayed this week, and the inventory accumulation at the port next Monday is expected to be less than expected [5] - The restart of Satellite Petrochemical's first line, originally scheduled for mid - August, has been postponed, and the production forecast for August - September has been lowered [5] Bearish Factors - After the release of the Politburo meeting content on July 30th, the "anti-involution" sentiment has initially cooled, and the valuation is returning to fundamentals [5] - The previously temporarily shut - down devices in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and the import forecast for September has been revised upwards [5] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production devices in different regions and enterprises, including MEG, PX, and PTA, with details such as capacity, production time, and operation status provided [6] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Data on the prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, and different polyester contracts on August 1, 2025, July 31, 2025, and July 25, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided. Also, information on various spreads like TA main basis, EG main basis, and month - to - month spreads is given [7] Warehouse Receipts - PTA warehouse receipts are 30740, MEG warehouse receipts are 2168, and PX warehouse receipts are 0 [8] Processing Fees and Profits - Data on processing fees such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, and profits of products like POY, DTY, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided [8]