Shanghai Lonyer(SH:603003) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-01 03:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and fluctuated. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined. Looking at the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 1,040 lots to 26,610 lots, the short positions decreased by 1,158 lots to 32,329 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 25,427 lots to 57,250 lots (bilateral). MSC will start to lower prices in mid - August, leading the futures prices to decline from the current price perspective. Additionally, the Politburo meeting's change in the description of "anti - involution" from "governing the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations" to "governing the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations" has dampened the high - rising sentiment of related commodity futures. Indirectly, this has affected the futures prices opening lower today. For the future market, it is expected that the overall EC will likely fluctuate with a slight downward trend, but the impact of commodity sentiment and capital flows still needs to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - Position Management: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes, and are worried about falling freight rates (long position), to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and an entry range of 1,700 - 1,800 [1]. - Cost Management: For shipowners increasing blank sailings or about to enter the peak season and wishing to book according to orders (short position), to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and an entry range of 1,300 - 1,400 [1]. 3.2 Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factor: From July 28th to 29th, local time, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm. According to the consensus, both sides will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [2]. - Negative Factor: MSC has lowered the spot - cabin quotes for the European Line in mid - August [2]. 3.3 EC Base - Point and Price Information - Base - Point Changes: On August 1st, 2025, the base points of EC contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. all showed daily and weekly changes. For example, the base point of EC2508 was 194.96, with a daily increase of 17.40 and a weekly increase of 39.36 [2]. - Price and Spread: On August 1st, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts generally declined, with different daily and weekly decline rates. For example, the closing price of EC2508 was 2,121.6, with a daily decline of 0.81% and a weekly decline of 5.49%. The spreads between different contracts also showed various changes [3]. 3.4 Spot - Cabin Quotes - On August 14th, for Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping schedule, the total quote for 20GP was $1,730, an increase of $15 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2,900, an increase of $30 compared to the previous period. - In mid - August, for MSC's Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping schedule, the total quote for 20GP was $2,000, a decrease of $163 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3,340, a decrease of $306 compared to the previous period [5]. 3.5 Global Freight Rate Index - As of the latest data, the SCFIS European Line index was 2,316.56, down 3.50% from the previous value; the SCFIS US West Line index was 1,284.01, down 1.37% from the previous value. Different freight rate indices showed different changes [6]. 3.6 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On July 31st, 2025, the waiting times of major ports such as Hong Kong Port, Shanghai Port, etc. changed compared to the previous day and the same period last year. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.739 days, a decrease of 0.069 days from the previous day [13]. 3.7 Ship Speed and Number of Waiting Ships - On July 31st, 2025, the average speeds of container ships of different types such as 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + changed compared to the previous day and the same period last year. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 9, a decrease of 8 from the previous day [22].