金融期货日报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Stock Index: Trump signed a new tariff executive order effective August 1, maintaining the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10%. The US core PCE price index in June reached a 4 - month high of 2.8% year - on - year. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation forecasts. The State Council passed relevant AI - related opinions and implemented loan interest subsidy policies. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, the stock index may fluctuate in late August during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The external environment has not deteriorated significantly. With policy focus on consumption, market mechanisms, and capital market stability in the second half of the year, the rising market risk appetite may restrict the bond market. Some investors are reducing positions, and there are still differences in the market outlook [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - Stock Index: Expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - Treasury Bonds: Expected to move in a volatile manner [3]. 4. Market Review - Stock Index: On July 31, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 1.77%, 1.44%, 1.38%, and 0.88% respectively [5][7]. - Treasury Bonds: On July 31, 2025, the 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose by 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.57%, and 0.01% respectively [6][7]. 5. Technical Analysis - Stock Index: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6].