Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The A-share market has a high investment cost-performance ratio in the long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies, and their high growth potential may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro environment. The proportion of medium and long-term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility. Currently, policy signals are clear, and valuations are starting to recover, but the fundamentals have not been verified [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Market 1. Futures Contracts - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 20.00, 20.80, 16.40, and 18.20 respectively. The trading volumes were 23,577.00, 53,170.00, 12,168.00, and 3,531.00, and the open interest decreased by 4,718.00, 7,721.00, increased by 562.00, and increased by 685.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 16.40, 17.00, 17.20, and 15.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 12,022.00, 30,341.00, 4,009.00, and 855.00, and the open interest decreased by 599.00, 2,625.00, 72.00, and 155.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC contracts decreased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 1.40, 1.80, 2.00, and 3.80 respectively. The trading volumes were 21,529.00, 39,078.00, 11,549.00, and 4,777.00, and the open interest decreased by 2,979.00, 2,797.00, 128.00, and increased by 1,671.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter rising by 2.00, 2.20, 0.80, and 0.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 32,877.00, 98,231.00, 21,466.00, and 6,839.00, and the open interest decreased by 3,636.00, 8,546.00, 339.00, and increased by 1,231.00 respectively [1] 2. Inter - month Spreads - The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month being - 6.80, 1.20, - 45.20, and - 62.40 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 5.80, 1.20, - 43.60, and - 57.20 [1] II. Spot Market 1. Major Indexes - CSI 300 Index: The index decreased by 0.53%, with a previous value of 4,127.16, a trading volume of 27.359 billion lots, and a total trading value of 430.446 billion yuan [1] - SSE 50 Index: The index decreased by 0.60%, with a previous value of 2,795.51, a trading volume of 5.169 billion lots, and a total trading value of 114.043 billion yuan [1] - CSI 500 Index: The index increased by 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,299.59, a trading volume of 23.706 billion lots, and a total trading value of 304.368 billion yuan [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The index increased by 0.08%, with a previous value of 6,706.61, a trading volume of 26.4 billion lots, and a total trading value of 363.14 billion yuan [1] 2. Industry Indexes - Different industries showed different trends. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors decreased by 1.10%, 0.59%, 1.21%, and 1.48% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology sectors decreased by 1.65%, 0.30%, 0.32%, and increased by 1.43% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors decreased by 0.53% and 0.70% respectively [1] III. Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two days. For example, the basis of IF current month - CSI 300 was - 4.36, compared to - 2.04 two days ago [1] IV. Other Indexes 1. Domestic Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] 2. International Indexes - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.40%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.32% [1] V. Macro Information - A batch of new regulations came into effect on August 1st, including the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance", the "Measures for the Administration of Anti - Money Laundering and Counter - Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Institutions", etc. The US will resume imposing so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. The State Council Executive Meeting approved the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative" and deployed loan interest subsidy policies. The July China Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized work in nine aspects for the second half of the year [2] VI. Industry Information - The National Healthcare Security Administration formulated a new pricing mechanism for newly launched drugs and added more than 100 price items related to medical new technologies. The National Energy Administration is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities construction. In the first half of the year, the country's renewable energy new installed capacity was 268 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 99.3%. The financial regulatory authority required urban commercial medical insurance to highlight its inclusive nature [2]
申银万国期货早间策略-20250801
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-08-01 04:00