Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weakly volatile. The U.S. soybean is growing well, with a higher-than-expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in U.S. soybean futures prices. However, due to the lack of a substantial agreement between China and the U.S., the logic of a domestic supply gap remains unchanged, and import costs will support the price of Dalian soybean meal [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils closed slightly lower. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month-on-month in July, while exports were weak, strengthening the expectation of inventory accumulation in July and dragging down the recent performance of palm oil. Due to the high level of imported soybeans in China, the supply of domestic soybean oil is sufficient, and the price is low. China's export of soybean oil to India poses a substitution risk, which may put pressure on the demand for palm oil in the origin and cause concerns about future exports. It is expected that oils will be weakly volatile in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8192, 8900, and 9510 respectively, with changes of -48, -82, and -111, and percentage changes of -0.58%, -0.91%, and -3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3000, 2702, and 8844 respectively, with changes of -10, -28, and 26, and percentage changes of -0.33%, -1.03%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil is currently 52, compared to the previous value of 38 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal were 4258 (ringgit/ton), 990 (cents/bushel), 55 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 14, -6, -1, and 2, and percentage changes of 0.33%, -0.58%, -2.42%, and 0.73% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have changed compared to the previous situation. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8370 and 8400 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.48% and -0.47% [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis and spreads also show differences from the previous values. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 178 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing - Profitability: The current import profitability of various varieties has changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -444, compared to the previous value of -355 [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - Quantities and Changes: The current quantities of warehouse receipts for various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 0, compared to the previous value of 13,709 [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - Indonesia's Policy: Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [2]. - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: According to ITS data, Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,163,216 tons, a 9.58% decrease from the same period last month [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250801
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-08-01 04:00