能源化策略日报：地缘决定原油?势，国内化?受到焦煤下跌拖累-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global geopolitical tensions and US tariff proposals have led to a stagnant oil market, with traders on the sidelines. The decline in domestic manufacturing activity and weakening domestic and export demand have dragged down domestic commodities and the energy - chemical sector. The high volatility of crude oil continues, while the chemical industry is weaker due to the cooling of market sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors continue to drive oil prices, with high refinery开工 rates in China and the US providing support. However, supply pressure from OPEC+ is also present. The strong current situation driven by high refinery开工 and the weak expectation driven by supply pressure lead to oil price oscillations. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9] - Asphalt: With rising oil prices, short - selling opportunities for asphalt emerge. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [10] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is regarded as weak. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and geopolitical factors only cause short - term price fluctuations [10] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Its price follows the weakening of crude oil. It faces factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [12] - PX: The commodity sentiment has cooled, but the cost still provides some support. The overall supply - demand pattern has limited changes, and the inventory remains at a low level [14] - PTA: Some plants have short - term shutdowns, and the cost still has some support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15] - Pure Benzene: There is no obvious driving force, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The fundamental situation has improved in the third quarter, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [18] - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has cooled, and it oscillates in a narrow range. There is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, and port inventories are accumulating [19] - Ethylene Glycol: Typhoons have temporarily affected port inventory reduction. In the short term, the cost support has weakened, and supply pressure has increased. There is an expectation of inventory inflection [20] - Short - Fiber: The inventory has increased month - on - month. The price passively follows the raw materials, and downstream demand remains weak [22] - Bottle - Chip: It returns to the cost - pricing model. The price oscillates weakly following the decline of upstream raw materials [23] - Methanol: The port inventory is accumulating, and it oscillates in the short term. The production profit is still relatively high, and there is a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin sector [24] - Urea: The demand is generally weak, and the market is in a state of weak downward movement. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is expected to oscillate or decline [25] - Plastic: The maintenance rate has decreased, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate in the short term, and the supply pressure is still present. The demand is in the off - season, and overseas factors need to be monitored [27] - PP: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US game, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate, the supply side has an incremental trend, and the demand side is weak. Overseas factors and Sino - US tariff games need to be monitored [29] - PL: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and may oscillate in the short term. The short - term capital game is significant, and the spot impact is limited [29] - PVC: The policy expectation has cooled, and it mainly oscillates. The market sentiment has cooled, the fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise [32] - Caustic Soda: The spot price has been unexpectedly reduced, and it is under cautious pressure. The downstream demand has marginal changes, and the production is at a high level. The downward space is limited due to low inventory and cost support [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - term Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - term spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.8 with a change of 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 26 with a change of - 18 [33] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 126 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 81140 [34] - Cross - Variety Spreads: There are also corresponding cross - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 335 with a change of 28 [35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not provided with specific summarized content in the given text, only variety names are listed such as methanol, urea, etc. [36][47]