Changjiang Securities·2025-08-01 05:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The bank's revenue growth for the first half of the year is 7.5% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 16.0%, driven by improved asset quality and a decrease in the tax rate [2][6] - The loan balance increased by 8.1% compared to the beginning of the year, with a focus on corporate lending while controlling risks [2][12] - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.12%, down 2 basis points from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 253%, up 11 percentage points [2][6] - The significant shareholding increase by the state-owned shareholder, Guoxin Group, signals confidence in the bank's long-term development [2][12] - The bank's performance has consistently exceeded expectations since 2024, indicating a robust fundamental outlook that supports a revaluation of its value [2][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to maintain a double-digit growth in net interest income, attributed to rapid credit expansion and stabilization of net interest margins [12] - The bank's net profit growth is expected to remain high, benefiting from improved asset quality and a lower effective tax rate [12] Loan and Deposit Growth - Loans grew by 8.1% from the beginning of the year, with a quarterly growth rate of 2.6%, focusing on corporate clients [12] - Deposits increased by 7.9% compared to the beginning of the year, with a quarterly growth of 3.9% [12] Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality indicators are improving, with a declining non-performing loan ratio and increasing provision coverage, reaching the best levels since its listing [12] - The expected non-performing loan generation rate for 2024 is projected to be 0.52%, indicating stability in asset quality [12] Strategic Developments - Guoxin Group's planned significant share increase is seen as a strong signal of confidence in the bank's long-term strategy [12] - The bank's governance structure is market-oriented, and the increased stake by Guoxin Group may enhance support from local government resources [12] Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with a maintained dividend policy and a projected increase in dividend yield for 2025 [12] - Current valuations indicate significant upside potential, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.67x for A-shares and 0.52x for H-shares, alongside a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9x for A-shares and 4.6x for H-shares [12]