Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that it will operate in a range - bound and consolidating manner, with a downward - moving price center and a pessimistic market sentiment in a supply - demand weak situation. For aluminum, it is expected to operate in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production Disruptions: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - Real Estate Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - Market Situation: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the supply - demand weak pattern, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. Aluminum - Alumina: As of Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 90.92 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate increased by 2.02 percentage points to 82.41%. There are both restored and newly - added maintenance capacities in the South, and some northern alumina plants increased their operating capacity due to profit [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan. On July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The weekly出库 volume was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous week, reaching a new low this year [2]. - Market Outlook: In the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and demand pressure restricts the upside. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3].
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250801
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-08-01 05:04