Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Most financial and commodity markets are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends and investment opportunities [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Fixed - Income (Bonds) - Treasury Bonds: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and it is expected that treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, so one should remain cautious [5][6]. 2. Equity Index Futures - Stock Index Futures: Although the previous trading day saw mixed results in stock index futures, considering that domestic asset valuations are low and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still favored, and one can consider going long on stock index futures [8]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. Due to factors such as the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and one can consider going long on gold futures [10]. 4. Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - Copper: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell sharply. The White House's decision to impose tariffs on imported semi - finished copper products led to a sharp decline in US copper, and Shanghai and London copper followed suit. The supply of spot goods is tight, but the support factors for copper prices are weakening [57]. - Tin: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the expectation of tin ore resumption of production in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still in short supply, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [58]. - Nickel: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore has weakened, and the inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate. The consumption situation is not optimistic, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [59]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the dominant factor in the market, and iron ore prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the short term, it may continue to correct, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [14][15]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the main factor affecting the market. After short - term fluctuations, the prices of finished products are expected to return to the guidance of the supply - demand logic of the industry. The real estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [12]. 5. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards. Due to factors such as the US - South Korea trade agreement, geopolitical risks, and US sanctions on Iran, crude oil prices are expected to be supported, and one can consider going long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is sufficient, but the signing of trade agreements between the US and other countries is beneficial to the shipping market, so one can consider going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber fell. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in the red. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, natural rubber fell. Supply is affected by rainfall, and demand is stable. It is expected that natural rubber will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [30]. - PVC: On the previous trading day, PVC fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [32]. - Urea: On the previous trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will follow the spot market fluctuations, while in the medium term, a bullish view is maintained [37]. - Para - Xylene (PX): On the previous trading day, PX fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It may oscillate and adjust, and one should participate with caution [39][40]. - PTA: On the previous trading day, PTA fell. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the cost of crude oil provides some support. It may oscillate, and one should participate within a range [41]. - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory decline provides some support. One should be cautious about the upside space and participate within a range [42][43]. - Short - Fiber: On the previous trading day, short - fiber fell. The short - term supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It may follow the cost to oscillate, and one should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle Chips: On the previous trading day, bottle chips fell. The recent increase in equipment maintenance has led to inventory reduction, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [45][46]. - Soda Ash: On the previous trading day, soda ash fell. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [47]. - Glass: On the previous trading day, glass fell. The inventory is decreasing, but the market is still in a state of multi - empty game. One should continue to pay attention to spot trading and inventory changes [48][49]. - Caustic Soda: On the previous trading day, caustic soda fell. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, while the demand growth is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [50][51]. - Pulp: On the previous trading day, pulp fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - Lithium Carbonate: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the supply from the mining end is uncertain. One should mainly watch and control risks [55]. 6. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal fell. The good weather in the main production areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. One can consider going long on soybean meal after the adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [60][61]. - Palm Oil: On the previous trading day, palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, but the domestic consumption is increasing. One can consider going long on palm oil [62][63]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance. The inventory of rapeseed is decreasing, and one can consider going long on rapeseed - related products [64][65]. - Cotton: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fell. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. One is advised to short the far - month contracts in batches at high levels [66][68]. - Sugar: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated. The expected global bumper harvest has put pressure on sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - Apple: On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The expected reduction in production has been disproved, and the market is expected to be affected by anti - involution policies. It is recommended to wait and see [74][76]. - Live Pigs: On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the demand in summer is weak. One can consider closing out short positions gradually [78][79]. - Eggs: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in July, and one can consider a 9 - 10 spread reversal strategy [80][82]. - Corn and Corn Starch: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The supply - demand of corn is approaching balance, and the price has support at low levels. Corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - Logs: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The inventory of logs is decreasing slightly, and relevant policies may drive the forestry market. [88][90]
西南期货早间评论-20250801
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-08-01 05:15