尿素早评：重回基本面，下行压力加剧-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - After the Political Bureau meeting, the expectation of anti - involution policy fluctuated, coking coal prices declined, and most coal - chemical products followed suit. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season, and if export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices declined: UR01 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan (-1.92%); UR05 closed at 1775 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (-1.50%); UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan (-1.61%) [1] - Most domestic spot prices remained stable: Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Northeast prices were unchanged, while Jiangsu dropped 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%) [1] - Upstream and downstream prices were mostly stable: The prices of anthracite coal, compound fertilizer, and melamine in various regions remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1739 yuan/ton, the highest was 1739 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1709 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1722 yuan/ton, and the position was 141,557 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated weakly and closed at 1714. Due to the repeated expectation of anti - involution policy and the decline of coking coal, most coal - chemical products followed suit. Considering the supply - demand fundamentals, it is recommended to wait and see [1]