国投期货综合晨报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may continue to experience oscillating adjustments, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls guidance [3]. - Copper short positions should be held as the import tariff on refined copper is excluded, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation [4]. - Aluminum may continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption [5]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are recommended according to their specific supply - demand and market conditions, such as short - selling aluminum oxide, waiting for inventory verification for aluminum, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices declined. Although trade wars suppress market sentiment, there are still supporting factors from sanctions on oil. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The cracking spreads of FU and LU are further declining due to weak fundamentals and the support of the crude oil market [22]. - Asphalt: In August, domestic production is expected to decline compared to July. Demand recovery is delayed, and inventory reduction is weak. The price trend follows crude oil [23]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The overseas market is under pressure due to supply loosening. The domestic market is also under pressure, and the price is generally low [23]. - Urea: The futures price has fallen sharply. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the short - term market is expected to be weakly oscillating [24]. - Methanol: A coastal olefin plant is under maintenance, and the port is accumulating inventory seasonally. The domestic supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [25]. Metal Commodities - Copper: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. Trump's tariff policy affects the import arbitrage expectation, and short positions should be held [4]. - Aluminum: The price is declining. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, and the short - term trend is under pressure [5]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. The short - term price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience in the medium term [6]. - Alumina: The industry profit has recovered, but the market is in an oversupply state. Short - selling is recommended near the recent high of 3500 yuan [7]. - Zinc: The macro - optimistic sentiment has faded. The supply - demand pattern is supply - increasing and demand - weakening. Short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The price of nickel is oscillating. The upstream price support has weakened, and short - selling is recommended [10]. - Tin: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. High - position short positions should be held [11]. Chemical Commodities - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The demand for propylene has increased slightly, but the market is lackluster. Polyolefin futures are in an interval - consolidation pattern [28]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is weakening, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillating and weakening. Caustic soda is running weakly, and the long - term price is under pressure [29]. - PX & PTA: The prices of PX and PTA have fallen. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs the recovery of downstream demand [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is declining. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas supply is stabilizing [31]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip: The prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium term, while bottle chips have long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. Agricultural Commodities - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The US soybean is under pressure due to good weather and high excellent - rate. The domestic soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The market is waiting for the result of trade negotiations [36]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The prices of both are adjusting. A long - position allocation strategy at low prices is recommended, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [37]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed price is expected to be in a consolidation state. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. - Corn: The futures price is oscillating and weakening. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic market focuses on the supply in the circulation link [40]. - Cotton: The price is declining. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - season production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [43]. - Sugar: The US sugar trend is downward, and the Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating [44]. - Apple: The price is oscillating. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [45]. - Wood: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the futures price is expected to rise. A long - position strategy is recommended [46]. - Paper Pulp: The price is falling. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level oscillation [47]. Others - Stock Index: The stock market declined, and the mid - term market is expected to be relatively positive. Allocation to technology - growth sectors and low - level consumer sectors can be considered [48]. - Treasury Bond: The futures price of treasury bonds has strengthened. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short term [49].