国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall commodity market is weakening, with various energy and chemical products showing different trends. Some products are trending down, some are in a volatile state, and some are facing pressure or have potential opportunities [2][10]. - For specific products, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, there are corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand and cost situations [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The commodity market is weakening, and PX多头减仓. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies. Supply has a marginal decrease, and the cost side is strengthening [5][10]. - PTA: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads for the basis - spread arbitrage. Supply pressure is increasing, and the 01 contract's long - PX short - PTA strategy can be considered. The basis is in a reverse - arbitrage situation, and the 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage can be focused on [10][12]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is still weak, and the basis - spread strategy is to go long on the basis and short on the month spread. There is supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention can be paid to the short - MEG long - L arbitrage [12][13]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is in a volatile state. This week, the macro and fundamental factors have turned from strong to weak, leading to a high - level correction of rubber prices. The downstream tire enterprise procurement has weakened, and the inventory has increased [14][18]. c. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. Although the overall commodity speculative sentiment is weakening, the significant decline in butadiene's port and production enterprise inventories provides support at the valuation end [19][21]. d. Asphalt - It is in a high - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the possible rise of crude oil prices again. This week, the domestic asphalt production capacity utilization rate has increased, the maintenance volume has decreased, and the shipment volume has increased [22][33]. e. LLDPE - The trend still has pressure. Macroscopically, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The cost is rising due to the increase in crude oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is not strong [34][35]. f. PP - The spot price is falling, and the trading is light. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, which increases the wait - and - see sentiment of market participants. The cost support of the supply side is weakening, and the downstream procurement is cautious [38][39]. g. Caustic Soda - There are still expectations for the peak - season demand. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the price increase momentum is insufficient, but it is supported by the cost. In the long term, there is potential for demand growth [41][43]. h. Pulp - It is in a weakly volatile state. The reasons for the price fluctuation include the decline of the futures price following the overall commodity market, weak spot demand, and unresolved supply pressure [46][49]. i. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float - glass original - sheet price fluctuates, with some regions' prices rising and some falling. The downstream is digesting inventory, and the enterprise shipment is partly slowing down [51][52]. j. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The port methanol market is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the downstream is resistant to high prices. The inland market is rising, mainly due to the increase in external procurement by northwest olefin plants [56][58]. k. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The enterprise inventory has increased, the domestic demand is weakening, and the export is not meeting expectations. In the short term, it is expected to be under oscillating pressure [60][61]. l. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. It is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly considered as a short - position allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage [63][64]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply has a slight increase, and the downstream demand is tepid, with procurement mainly for on - demand replenishment [65][67]. n. PVC - It is in a short - term weakly volatile state. The fundamentals have not improved significantly during the "anti - involution" process. The industry has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [70][72]. o. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The night - session has weakened, and it has entered a short - term oscillating state. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The consolidation trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [75]. p. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is recommended to hold short positions as appropriate, or the weak trend may continue. The index has been running weakly, with the main contracts showing declines and position reductions [77][84].