沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250801

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The U.S. does not impose tariffs on electrolytic copper, ending cross - market arbitrage. The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper tends to rise, so the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors lightly short the main contract on rallies, and pay attention to certain support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and U.S. copper [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,040, a decrease of 890 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 109,011 hands, a decrease of 119,877 hands compared to the previous day; the open interest was 176,193 hands, an increase of 4,504 hands compared to the previous day; the inventory was 19,622 tons, a decrease of 351 tons compared to the previous day; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,565, a decrease of 720 compared to the previous day [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 525, an increase of 170 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes, such as - 20 in Guangzhou, - 110 in North China, and 32 in East China [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 31, 2025 was 9,607, a decrease of 123 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 138,200 compared to the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on July 31, 2025 was 4.4305, a decrease of 1.24 compared to the previous day; the total inventory was 257,915, an increase of 4,484 compared to the previous day [2]. News and Events - On July 30, local time, the U.S. White House announced that starting from August 1, it will impose a 20% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and steel - intensive derivative products, while copper input raw materials and copper scrap are not subject to "Section 232" or equivalent tariffs [2]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer - end inflation CPI and PCE in the U.S. to rise in June. The U.S. economy and employment performance are robust, and the inflation pushed up by tariffs may take a long time to show, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and December [2][3]. Production Changes - Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile in 2025 in the second quarter; Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to an accident; Anglo Asian Mining's Deniri copper mine started trial production; Russia's Nornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast; several mines in China and other regions had production - affecting incidents [3]. - Some mines have expansion or new - production plans, such as the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador under Tongling Nonferrous Metals may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2025 [3].