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集运日报:市场氛围偏空,大宗商品均下跌较多,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250801
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-08-01 05:20

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and a weak and volatile market. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1][3]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The market fundamentals are relatively stable, but the overall sentiment is bearish, possibly due to capital outflows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the European route price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the service - sector PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [2]. 3.3 Policy and Market Events - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with a small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the 2510 contract at below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300) and partially take profits; short on the EC2512 contract with a light position, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Other Events - On July 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson hoped that the US would work with China to promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations [5]. - On July 30 evening local time, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces attacked three targets in Israel with five drones, and Israel did not respond [5]. - An Israeli senior official submitted a response to the cease - fire negotiation mediation party on July 29 evening, and Hamas did not respond [5].