“反内卷”下的价格分化

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, breaking the consecutive increase seen in Q2[5] - The decline in PMI is attributed to two main factors: the end of the overseas order recovery phase and disruptions caused by extreme weather[5] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, with significant impacts on industries like non-metallic mineral products and chemical raw materials due to extreme weather events[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics in Manufacturing - The price indicators in manufacturing showed improvement, with the main raw material purchase price index rising to 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, marking increases of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively from June[10] - Despite the rise in purchase prices, factory prices are contracting, indicating a widening gap that may weaken overall manufacturing profits in the short term[11] - The basic raw materials sector is the only one among four major categories to see an increase in PMI, with its purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52%[11] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to near the threshold line, with both construction and service sectors contributing to this decline[16] - The construction sector's PMI dropped to 50.6%, the largest decline since January, primarily due to extreme weather and ongoing real estate weaknesses[16] - In the non-manufacturing sector, a divergence in price trends was observed, with service sector prices declining while construction input and sales prices increased significantly[19] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and the implementation of policies is not meeting expectations, posing risks to economic stability[22]