燃料油日报：高硫油市场结构延续弱势，低硫端利好同样有限-20250801

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term cost of fuel oil is strongly supported by the recent strong crude oil price, but the oil market may face a looser balance sheet in the medium term, and there is still resistance to the upside of oil prices if sanctions expectations are not fulfilled [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is currently weak, with sufficient supply and high inventory. Demand lacks highlights except for power plant peak - season purchases. However, the shrinkage of the East - West spread may tighten arbitrage cargo supply and support the Asia - Pacific market in the short term. Structurally favorable factors may lead to a stronger market if refinery demand recovers significantly [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited current benefits. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. In the medium term, abundant remaining capacity may lead to increased supply, and the market share may be gradually replaced by the shipping industry's carbon - neutral trend [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.37% at 2933 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.38% at 3676 yuan/ton [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak fundamental situation, with a significant decline in cracking spreads from high levels, sufficient supply, and high inventory. Refinery demand has not shown large - scale improvement, but short - term support may come from reduced arbitrage cargo supply [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited positive factors. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. The market outlook is not optimistic due to abundant capacity and the carbon - neutral trend [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Low - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Cross - variety: Appropriate profit - taking for previous short positions in FU cracking spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) [3] - Cross - period: Gradual profit - taking for previous FU reverse arbitrage positions [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]