有色金属行业点评报告：特朗普铜关税影响不及预期，铜价将回归供需定价

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the copper tariffs is limited, with a concentrated import source [3] - The share of imports from China is minimal, indicating a non-major reliance [4] - The restructuring of the U.S. copper industry will require a long period [5] - Copper prices are expected to return to supply-demand pricing [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On July 30, President Trump signed an announcement imposing a 50% tariff on certain copper imports, effective August 1. This includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while raw copper materials and scrap are exempt from these tariffs [2] Analysis and Judgment - The copper tariffs are expected to have a limited impact on U.S. copper imports, with 2024 imports totaling 610,300 tons, primarily from Chile (33.6%), Canada (30.4%), and Mexico (7.6%). In the first half of 2025, imports reached 1,011,900 tons, with a significant portion being raw materials exempt from tariffs [3] - The affected product categories from China account for less than 5% of total U.S. imports, indicating a limited impact [4] - The announcement requires that by 2027, 25% of copper raw materials produced in the U.S. must be sold domestically, increasing to 40% by 2029, which aims to enhance U.S. smelting capacity [5] - Due to the lack of restrictions on raw copper, the COMEX copper premium has disappeared, and it is anticipated that copper will flow to other markets, leading to a return to supply-demand pricing [6]