化工日报：焦煤价格回落，带动EG回调-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of EG followed the decline of coking coal, with the closing price of the EG main contract at 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market at 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China continued to decline. According to CCF, it was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period) [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the import is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a weakening pressure on the fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The trading strategy is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side due to the weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal, and wait for coking coal to digest the over - increase of last week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 68 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO - EG co - production plants have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high [2]. International Price Difference No information provided. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal carried out centralized replenishment, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period). Affected by the typhoon, the arrival of ships was postponed, and the inventory continued to decline [1].