作者：刘思琪从业资格证号：F3083559交易咨询证号：Z0016260

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral, with a focus on low - buying opportunities [5] - PX: Neutral, expecting low - buying [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish, suggesting attention to low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Downstream restocking has stabilized demand during the off - season. Supply maintenance is significant, and the market is in a tight balance from July to August. Overall inventory is not high, and it is supported by macro factors and crude oil in the short term [5][50] - PX: Low inventory, decent supply - demand fundamentals, stable spot prices. Short - term cost and macro factors are strong, so low - buying is expected [6][78] - Ethylene Glycol: Low inventory, extended maintenance of integrated units, a tight balance. Short - term macro factors and coal prices are strong, and low inventory provides support. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [7][113] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PTA - Device Changes: Fuhai Chuang is under maintenance until the end of August, Weilian Chemical will restart in early August. YS Dahua plans maintenance in early August, YS Hainan plans technological transformation in August, and Jiaxing Petrochemical has a maintenance plan in August. New materials slightly reduced their load due to the typhoon [39][41] - Inventory: As of July 25, PTA social inventory slightly increased to 220.5 million tons (excluding credit warehouse receipts), with a 1.6 - million - ton increase. Warehouse receipt inventory is not high, and in - port and in - warehouse goods are relatively high [42] - Supply - Demand Balance: Supply - demand changes are small, maintaining a tight balance from July to August. Demand has stabilized during the off - season, and it is supported by cost and macro factors [50] 3.2 PX - Device Changes: Domestic operating rate is 79.9%, and Asian operating rate is 72.9%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, Shenghong slightly reduced its load, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. Weilian plans to restart in early August. The new Daxie reforming and disproportionation units are planned to produce in August, and Yulong MX is under commissioning [6][73][78] - Supply - Demand Balance: The balance is tight, and PXN has corrected to around $260 - 270. It is supported by short - term macro factors and crude oil [78] 3.3 Ethylene Glycol - Device Changes: The overall load is 68%, and the coal - based load is 74%. For oil - based production, Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to restart in early August, and Satellite Petrochemical has postponed its restart to the end of September. For coal - based production, Yangmei, Jianyuan, Yueneng, and Sinochem have restarted, Tianying is shut down, and Shenhua Yulin slightly reduced its load [7][87][113] - Inventory: As of July 28, the inventory at major ports in East China is about 521,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory is at a relatively low level [109] - Supply - Demand Balance: The balance is tight from July to August, with low inventory and little pressure to accumulate inventory [113] 3.4 Polyester Industry - Operating Rate: As of July 25, the polyester load is 88.7%. After downstream restocking, the inventory pressure has decreased. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 67% (+6%), 59% (+3%), and 65% (-2%) respectively [14][50] - Inventory: As of July 25, the average polyester inventory is about 18.8 days. The inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber are 16.5, 23.3, 23.8, and 12.8 days respectively [14][25] - Profit: The overall profit of the polyester industry chain is average. The losses of filament profit have slightly recovered, and the profits of bottle chips, staple fibers, and chips have slightly improved [15]