新能源及有色金属日报：反内卷情绪降温，工业硅多晶硅盘面回落-20250801

Report Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Others - None [3] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation; Others - None [6] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped on July 31, 2025, and the current price is relatively reasonably valued based on fundamentals, but supply is expected to increase, and the market is affected by policies and sentiment [1][3] - Polysilicon futures prices also fell sharply on the same day, with stable spot prices. The market is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment, and the specific details of industry storage and mergers are yet to be determined [3] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures: On July 31, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 9090 yuan/ton and closed at 8760 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.26% from the previous settlement. The closing position was 212932 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50644 lots, an increase of 798 lots from the previous day [1] - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price declined. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9700 - 9900 (- 200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9900 - 10400 (- 100) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 9100 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 9000 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton [1] - Production: In July 2025, industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [1] - Inventory: On July 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 540,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 119,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 421,000 tons, an increase of 6000 tons from the previous week [1] - Consumption: The organic silicon DMC quotation was 12100 - 12700 (0) yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction center was around 12300 yuan/ton. The demand matching degree decreased due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [2] Polysilicon - Futures: On July 31, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 52500 yuan/ton and closed at 49130 yuan/ton, a change of - 7.81% from the previous trading day. The position was 126989 lots, and the trading volume was 565838 lots [3] - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production was 26500.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%, and silicon wafer production was 11.00GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79% [5] - Prices of Related Products: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.00) yuan/piece. High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.30 (0.01) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No specific strategies [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Others: No specific strategies [6]