化工日报：宏观情绪降温，关注成本端走势-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the cost - side trends. Geopolitical situations have disturbed oil prices, but the EIA data shows poor supply - demand fundamentals for US crude oil and refined products. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and its price is affected by macro and oil trends. TA's fundamentals have little change, and it is necessary to focus on macro sentiment. The polyester load is currently strong, and the demand needs to recover. PF has weak demand and high inventory, and the near - month contract is under pressure. PR's processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton after repair [1][2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][11] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asian PX load [27][30][32] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - The figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [46][48][50] 7. PF Detailed Data - The figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][69][79] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][93][95]