Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for natural rubber (RU and NR) is neutral. The rating for butadiene rubber (BR) is also neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the cost - side support has weakened as rainfall in Thailand's main production areas has decreased and raw material output has rebounded. Although the recent arrival volume in China has declined, demand is weak due to reduced raw material procurement by tire factories and a slight increase in finished - product inventory. After the macro - environment weakens, the supply - demand situation of natural rubber returns to a weak pattern [4] - For butadiene rubber, the supply will continue to increase as some plants have restarted and private plants have increased their production loads. Demand is weak, with reduced raw material procurement by tire factories and a slight increase in finished - product inventory. Some tire enterprises have maintenance plans, which may lead to a decline in tire operating rates. The supply - demand situation of butadiene rubber is weak [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,560 yuan/ton, a change of - 385 yuan/ton from the previous day. The NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 400 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,250 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was $1,760/ton, a change of - $35/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was $1,710/ton, a change of - $15/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Natural rubber imports in China: In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first half of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.386 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 804,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; smoked sheet exports were 196,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%; latex exports were 377,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Exports to China totaled 557,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 355,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 57,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 307%; latex exports to China totaled 143,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77% [2] - Passenger car market: In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] - European replacement tire market: In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 31, 2025, the RU basis was - 10 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 310 yuan/ton (- 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 4,701 yuan/ton (+ 399.82), the NR basis was 308.00 yuan/ton (+ 59.00). The price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 400), the price of mixed rubber was 14,250 yuan/ton (- 300), the price of 3L spot was 14,650 yuan/ton (- 250). The STR20 was quoted at $1,760/ton (- 35). The spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (- 150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,150 yuan/ton (- 100) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.33 baht/kg (- 0.26), the price of Thai latex was 54.50 baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.70 baht/kg (- 0.80), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 6.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.26% (- 2.97%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.98% (- 0.08%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,702 tons (+ 4,602.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 640,384 tons (+ 5,798), the RU futures inventory was 182,020 tons (- 4,620), and the NR futures inventory was 37,398 tons (+ 707) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 31, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 20), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,800 yuan/ton (- 300), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 1,409 yuan/ton (- 200) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.46% (+ 4.73%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,520 tons (+ 50), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,800 tons (- 1,050) [4]
化工期货日报：轮胎厂开工率环比下降-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-01 05:57