油脂日报：马棕出口放缓，油脂震荡-20250801

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Malaysia's export data showed a slowdown in July. Although India's purchases increased, the overall inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. The crops in the US soybean production area are growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although the export data is good, its impact on the domestic market is limited [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or -0.91% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,192.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.00 yuan or -0.58%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 111.00 yuan or -1.15% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or -0.67% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or -0.48%. The spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 8.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan or -1.13%. The spot basis was OI09 + 90.00, an increase of 1.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to data from the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a decrease of 6.71% compared to the 1,382,460 tons exported in the same period last month [2] India's Palm Oil Purchases - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that as global prices decline, Indian vegetable oil importers are increasing their palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season [2] Indonesia's Palm Oil Policies - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per ton, higher than the $877.89 in July. The new reference price means that the export tax for crude palm oil in August will be raised from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton. Indonesia also adjusted the reference prices and export taxes in previous months, with significant fluctuations [2] US Crop Drought Conditions - According to the latest USDA drought report, as of the week ending July 29, about 5% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, compared to 8% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 7% of the US corn planting area was affected by drought, compared to 9% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 5% of the US cotton planting area was affected by drought, compared to 3% in the previous week and 11% in the same period last year [2]