PA联盟8月份运价降至2900美元/FEU，马士基35周加班船船

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the August contract freight rate has emerged, with the current estimated SCFIS between 2300 - 2400 points on August 4th and 11th, and the delivery settlement price of the August contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The freight rate decline slope in August is greater than previously expected, and the delivery settlement price of the August contract has been revised down to between 2100 - 2200 points [3]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the freight rate decline slope, with large expected fluctuations. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - The peak - off - peak season pattern still exists in the December contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In normal years, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [5]. - The strategy includes a volatile main contract for the unilateral approach, and for the arbitrage, it is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of July 31, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 75,266.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 56,182.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1484.70, 1324.10, 1462.50, 2121.60, 1425.10, and 1692.30 respectively [6]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2090.00 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 2067.00 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 3378.00 dollars/FEU. On July 28, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1284.01 points [6]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. Among them, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU; 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. - The average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route in August is 303,200 TEU, and in September it is 289,800 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA alliance, and there are currently 5 TBNs in August; there are currently 3 TBNs in September [2]. - Maersk added an extra - sailing ship Beijing Maersk (15,780 TEU) in Week 32 and Maersk Emden (13,092 TEU) in Week 35, and the schedule of Maersk Emden has been released, with a call at Shanghai Port on August 26 [2]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel on the 31st local time and met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss issues such as the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided other than some data graphs mentioned in the report.