南华油品发运数据周报：原油发运量开始回暖，当周BDTI运价指数环比由跌转涨-20250801

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index rebounded in the week from July 28th to July 31st, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17% (the decline significantly narrowed). The increase in the demand for tanker use in the Red Sea and the decrease in the Aden Gulf region were favorable for the BDTI index. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ crude oil production increases and global economic expectations [2]. - As of July 25th, the crude oil shipment volume showed a pattern of "three decreases and one increase." The shipment volume decreased in the US by 6.26%, Saudi Arabia by 21.02%, and the UAE by 0.48%, while it increased in Russia by 12.6% [2]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased, with an increase in the number of crude oil tankers and a decrease in the number of refined oil tankers. In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic decreased slightly [7]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased [9]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, China, India, and the Netherlands all saw a week - on - week decline in crude oil arrivals, and their import demand fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30]. 3. Summary by Section BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of July 31st, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 921 points, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17%. The freight rate increased significantly in that week from a seasonal perspective [2][3]. Tanker Voyage Distance - In the 28th week of 2025 (as of July 18th), except for the Aframax tankers whose voyage distance decreased week - on - week, the voyage distances of VLCC and Suez - type tankers increased. Specifically, the voyage distances of VLCC, Aframax, and Suez - type tankers changed by +3.2%, - 7.33%, and +13.94% week - on - week respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the Aframax tankers' voyage distance was still in a shortened state [5]. Tanker Traffic in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf - From July 26th to July 30th, the average daily tanker traffic in the Red Sea was 771 ships, an increase of 26 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 34, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 11. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC decreased by 5, the number of Suez - type increased by 5, and the number of Aframax increased by 7 [7]. - In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic reached 113 ships, a decrease of 3 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 2, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 1. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC remained unchanged, the number of Suez - type increased by 1, and the number of Aframax decreased by 4 [7]. Tanker Capacity - As of July 26th, 2025, 9,421 tankers were dismantled, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 81 year - on - year; the number of effective ships was 18,292, an increase of 8 week - on - week and 443 year - on - year; the number of ship deliveries was 196, a decrease of 6 week - on - week and an increase of 72 year - on - year; the number of ship orders was 1,359, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 170 year - on - year; the number of ships under construction was 220, unchanged week - on - week and an increase of 85 year - on - year [9]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers whose port capacity decreased week - on - week, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased. Specifically, the number of VLCCs berthed was 2,416, an increase of 18 week - on - week; the number of Aframax berthed was 3,271, an increase of 74 week - on - week; the number of Suez - type tankers berthed was 2,409, a significant decrease of 358 week - on - week [9]. Crude Oil Shipment Data Tracking - US crude oil shipments decreased week - on - week, with the demand for VLCC use increasing week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Aframax tankers was the weakest, below the average level of the same period in the past four years [11][15]. - Russian crude oil shipments increased week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Suez - type tankers was extremely strong [11][19]. - Saudi crude oil exports continued to decline week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for VLCC use was extremely weak [21]. - UAE crude oil shipments decreased. Seasonally, the demand for all three tanker types was higher than the four - year average, and the demand for Aframax tankers was the strongest in that week [26]. - The total crude oil shipments of Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased slightly, mainly due to the week - on - week increase in the shipment volume of Kuwait and Iran [29]. Crude Oil Arrivals - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all decreased week - on - week. Seasonally, the crude oil import demand of the three countries fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30].