综合晨报-20250801

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options on crude oil [2] - Precious metals may continue to experience shock adjustments, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm employment guidance [3] - For copper, short positions should be held [4] - Aluminum and related products are under short - term pressure, but casting aluminum alloy has certain resilience in the medium term [5][6] - For alumina, short positions can be considered near the recent high of 3500 yuan [7] - For zinc, short positions on rallies are the general direction, but short - term macro fluctuations need to be watched out for [8] - For nickel and stainless steel, look for opportunities to short sell [10] - For tin, hold short positions at high levels [11] - For lithium carbonate, try short - term long positions with a light position [12] - For polysilicon, it is likely to have a wide - range shock within the range of 45000 - 55000 yuan/ton, and position control is crucial [13] - For industrial silicon, it will continue to be in a shock pattern in the short term [14] - For steel products, the short - term market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the commodity market [15] - For iron ore, the trend is expected to be mainly shock [16] - For coke, the price is affected by steel prices [17] - For coking coal, the further downward space is relatively limited [18] - For manganese silicon, pay attention to the support at the 5800 level [19] - For silicon iron, it follows the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost may decline again [20] - For the container shipping index (European line), the short - term shock pattern is difficult to break [21] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread is weak [22] - For asphalt, the price follows the direction of crude oil, and the low inventory supports the price [23] - For liquefied petroleum gas, it operates at a low level [23] - For urea, the short - term market is weakly volatile [24] - For methanol, pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25] - For pure benzene, conduct monthly spread band operations [26] - For styrene, the cost is supported by oil prices, but the supply - demand situation is weak [27] - For polypropylene, plastic, and propylene, the polyolefin futures continue the range - bound pattern [28] - For PVC and caustic soda, PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29] - For PX and PTA, the mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30] - For ethylene glycol, the price continues to decline [31] - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term [32] - For glass, the market returns to reality trading [33] - For rubber, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34] - For soda ash, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35] - For soybeans and soybean meal, the market is first treated as shock [36] - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a long - position strategy on dips [37] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38] - For soybeans (domestic), pay attention to weather and policy guidance [39] - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weakly volatile at the bottom [40] - For live pigs, the futures may have peaked and are likely to decline [41] - For eggs, the 26 - year - later contracts are relatively stronger, and wait for the market to trade the cyclical reversal of egg prices [42] - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43] - For sugar, the short - term price is expected to be in shock, and wait and see [44] - For apples, wait and see the price changes of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45] - For timber, maintain a long - position strategy [46] - For pulp, the price may return to low - level shock, and wait and see [47] - For stock indices, maintain an allocation to the technology growth sector and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - For treasury bonds, the futures may enter a repair stage, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [49] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices declined. Trade wars suppress market sentiment, but there are still supporting factors from sanctioned oil. The geopolitical game window has been advanced, and oil prices are short - term volatile and slightly stronger [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The crack spread has further declined. The market fundamentals are weak, and it is affected by the macro and geopolitical support of the crude oil market [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, the supply is loose, and the domestic market is under pressure. The price is at a low - level overall [23] Metals - Precious Metals: The US 6 - month core PCE annual rate rebounded, and the economic recession risk decreased. The safe - haven sentiment cooled, suppressing precious metals, which may continue to adjust [3] - Base Metals - Copper: The copper price fell below the MA60 moving average. Trump's tariff on refined copper imports was excluded, and short positions should be held [4] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price continued to decline. The inventory increased, and the short - term is under pressure and volatile [5] - Zinc: The macro - optimistic sentiment faded, and the zinc price returned to fundamental trading. The supply - demand pattern of supply increase and weak demand remains unchanged, and short positions on rallies are the main strategy [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The nickel price is volatile, and the upstream price support has weakened. Look for opportunities to short sell [10] - Tin: The tin price fell below the MA60 moving average, and short positions at high levels should be held [11] - Ferroalloys - Manganese Silicon: Suppression factors on the manganese ore inventory have been improved. The price bottom is rising, and attention should be paid to the 5800 support level [19] - Silicon Iron: It follows the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost may decline again [20] Chemicals - Urea: The futures price dropped significantly. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the short - term market is weakly volatile [24] - Methanol: The port is seasonally accumulating inventory, and the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25] - Pure Benzene: The futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term is in shock, and monthly spread band operations are recommended [26] - Styrene: The cost is supported by oil prices, but the supply - demand situation is weak [27] - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The polyolefin futures continue the range - bound pattern, and the market lacks upward momentum [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29] - PX & PTA: The prices declined. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30] - Ethylene Glycol: The price continues to decline, and the supply is increasing [31] Agricultural Products - Grains - Corn: The futures price is weakly volatile. The US corn has a good growth situation, and the domestic market focuses on the supply in the circulation link [40] - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The US soybean has a high excellent - good rate, and the market is first treated as shock [36] - Oils - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The prices are adjusting. Maintain a long - position strategy on dips and pay attention to the weather and policies [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38] - Other Agricultural Products - Cotton: The price is falling. The downstream demand is weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - Sugar: The US sugar trend is downward, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in shock in the short term [44] - Apples: The price is volatile. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45] - Eggs: The futures price dropped significantly. The 26 - year - later contracts are relatively stronger, waiting for the cyclical reversal of egg prices [42] - Live Pigs: The futures price dropped significantly, and it may have peaked and be likely to decline [41] Building Materials - Glass: The market sentiment declined, and the glass price is weakly operating [33] - Lumber: The demand is good, the inventory is low, and the price is expected to rise [46] - Pulp: The price is falling. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. It may return to low - level shock [47] Financial Products - Stock Indices: The domestic equity market has fluctuations in the short term, and the medium - term is relatively positive. Maintain an allocation to the technology growth sector and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - Treasury Bonds: The futures price strengthened, and the yield curve is likely to steepen in the short term [49]