新能源及有色金属日报：商品情绪回落，碳酸锂盘面大幅回调-20250801

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2509 opened at 68,540 yuan/ton and closed at 68,280 yuan/ton, a -4.66% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 521,849 lots, and the open interest was 229,368 lots, down from 272,753 lots the previous day. The basis was 4,120 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 5,545 lots, a decrease of 7,586 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,800 - 73,200 yuan/ton, a -950 yuan/ton change from the previous day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,300 - 70,500 yuan/ton, also a -950 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 763 US dollars/ton, a -18 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. Downstream inquiry activity increased, but actual transactions did not expand proportionally, and downstream buyers were still cautious [1]. - Australian lithium miner PLS reported that in fiscal year 2025, the production of spodumene concentrate reached 754,600 tons, a 4% year - on - year increase, exceeding the guidance target of 700,000 - 740,000 tons. The production in the second quarter increased by 77% quarter - on - quarter to 221,300 tons. The company plans to increase production to 820,000 - 870,000 tons in 2026 [1]. 2. Project Report - Australian lithium developer Wildcat Resources released a pre - feasibility study report for the Tabba Tabba lithium project in Western Australia, indicating long - term development value. The two - stage development plan includes a $443 million investment in the first stage to build a 2.2 million - ton - per - year lithium mine facility, with an annual output of 295,000 tons of 5.5% spodumene concentrate. In the second stage, production can be expanded to 4.5 million tons per year, with a concentrate output of 565,000 tons. The project has proven ore reserves of 46.3 million tons (lithium oxide grade 1%), a mine life of 17 years, and a post - tax payback period of 5.4 years [2]. 3. Strategy - Recent disturbances are mainly due to domestic mine - end review issues, which are not fully determined. Overseas mine financial reports show increasing production and lower mining costs, reducing expectations of overseas production cuts. As the domestic lithium mine approval issue is undecided, the market may fluctuate, and short - term trading may be volatile. Participants should manage risks [3]. 4. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]