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农产品日报:板块延续弱势,关注宏观扰动-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-01 06:06

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and paper pulp are all neutral [4][7][10] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the price of US cotton futures is expected to continue to fluctuate in the second half of the year. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by various factors, and the price will be under pressure in the medium and long term [3] - The global sugar market may still be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic industrial inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9] Market News and Important Data Cotton - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 105 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,213 yuan/ton, a change of - 130 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,325 yuan/ton, a change of - 145 yuan/ton [1] Sugar - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5793 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton [5] Paper Pulp - The closing price of the paper pulp 2509 contract was 5232 yuan/ton, a change of - 94 yuan/ton (- 1.76%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5270 yuan/ton, a change of - 70 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate in the second half of the year. Domestically, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but there are many factors restricting the continuous rise of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [3] Sugar - The global sugar market may be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The short - term price has support factors, and there may be a phased rebound. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] Paper Pulp - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategies Cotton - Be neutral. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term [4] Sugar - Be neutral. The short - term price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be considered bearish [7] Paper Pulp - Be neutral. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels after the end of macro - stimulation [10]