新能源及有色金属日报：价格下行成交好转，升贴水依旧偏弱-20250801

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined, and the spot market trading has improved. However, the spot premium remains weak. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$2.69/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,625 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 182,660 lots, and the open interest was 110,481 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,295 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,200 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The spot market trading has improved as downstream buyers purchase at low prices, but the spot premium remains weak. The domestic ore tender price for the new month is not settled, and the imported ore TC is rising, with the highest offer reaching $85/ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for ores, so the TC is expected to continue rising. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the consumption growth is lower than the supply growth, and the social inventory is accumulating, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]