新能源及有色金属日报：铅价回落之际，下游采购积极性有所回升-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] Core Viewpoints - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the operating rates of related enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,500 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 31, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -36.37 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, 10,175 yuan/ton, and 10,525 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On July 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 53,359 lots, an increase of 16,041 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 72,631 lots, an increase of 5,890 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,905 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,710 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,705 yuan/ton and closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted flat to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 150 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quoted premiums continued to decline, with some delivery brand smelters being negotiated to a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton, and traders quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. As the lead price fluctuated weakly, some smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices and maintained firm quotes, while others lowered premiums to sell. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices, and the spot market trading improved, but those with firm prices had difficulty in making transactions [2] Inventory - On July 31, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 73,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of July 31, the LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons, an increase of 125 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]