集运日报：市场氛围偏空，大宗商品均下跌较多，盘面偏弱震荡，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250801

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market atmosphere is bearish with significant drops in commodities, and the market is oscillating weakly with large recent fluctuations. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Key Points by Category Market Conditions - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route on July 28 was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [2]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26%; the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points; the European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2%; the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [2]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, with a decline of 4.66%, a trading volume of 46,300 lots, and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, the same as April, back above the critical point [2]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [2]. Policy and Geopolitical Events - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market had a slight rebound [3]. - On July 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson hoped that the US would work with China to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations. On the same day, Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israeli targets, and Israel submitted a response to the cease - fire negotiation [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].